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Table 1 Nurse supply projections for 2015, by age group

From: Models for projecting supply and demand for nurses in Israel

Age group

Distribution 2010a

After 5 yearsb

Licensed nurses joining during 5 yearsc

Retirement and exit from workforce during 5 yearsd

Emigration during 5 yearse

Death during 5 yearsf

Returning to workforce during 5 yearsg

Supply projection end of 2015h

Total

41,601

36,930

6,000

1,437

1,581

350

138

39,701

24-29

4,502

 

3,872

450

171

5

38

3,285

30-34

5,639

4,502

573

451

214

8

50

4,450

35-39

5,639

5,639

573

169

214

14

25

5,839

40-44

5,639

5,639

573

56

214

23

7

5,926

45-49

5,420

5,639

409

163

206

35

12

5,656

50-54

5,420

5,420

 

54

206

57

3

5,106

55-59

4,671

5,420

 

47

178

82

2

5,116

60-65

4,671

4,671

 

47

178

126

2

4,323

  1. aThe number of employed nurses up to age 65 at the end of 2010. A survey conducted in 2008 [21] found that 89 % of the nurses registered at the Ministry of Health were working in the profession. Accordingly, the calculation is based on 89 % of the number of registered nurses.
  2. bThe distribution of nurses employed by age group after 5 years (each group was moved in full to the following age group)
  3. cDistribution of the expected entry of licensed nurses by age group based on Ministry of Health data on the average number of new nurses per year between 2010 and 2014, divided into age groups (1,200 new nurses per year)
  4. dThe calculation for the exit rate (retirement, stopping work as registered nurse) was based on the outcomes of the survival analyses by age, which was conducted in a study on the supply of nurses. The figures were calculated as the product of the rate of those leaving times the number of nurses who were in the age group at the start of the period.
  5. eThe emigration rate of 0.0076 in each of the age groups was multiplied by 5 in order to reflect emigration over 5 years.
  6. fThe product of the mortality rate per thousand capita (women) in the age group (CBS data) times the number of nurses in that group multiplied by 5 years and divided by 1,000.
  7. gThe percentage of nurses likely to return to the profession after a temporary exit from work as registered nurses in every age group multiplied by the number of nurses in each age group who left in the course of 5 years.
  8. hThe total number of nurses at the end of the period, the number of new nurses and the number of those likely to return to work (columns 3, 4, and 7 respectively) less the total of the columns representing exit from the work force – quitting, emigration and death (5, 6, and 7, respectively).
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Israel Journal of Health Policy Research

ISSN: 2045-4015