Models for projecting supply and demand for nurses in Israel

Table 3 Nurse demand projections, by demand models (selected scenarios)

	2015			2020			2025			2030
Demand projections for registered nurses	(1) Ratio of 4.8 nurses per thousand standard capita	(2) Ratio of beds per thousand standard capita	(3) Utilization (hospital days)	(1) Ratio of 4.8 nurses per thousand standard capita	(2) Ratio of beds per thousand standard capita	(3) Utilization (hospital days)	(1) Ratio of 4.8 nurses per thousand standard capita	(2) Ratio of beds per thousand standard capita	(3) Utilization (hospital days)	(1) Ratio of 4.8 nurses per thousand standard capita	(2) Ratio of beds per thousand standard capita	(3) Utilization (hospital days)
^{"Calibrated" demand}	40,090	40,331	39,366	44,045	43,950	42,886	50,069	50,231	47,672	53,150	54,722	49,714
Total demand		39,347	38,406		42,878	41,840		49,006	46,509		53,387	48,501
Demand in hospital inpatients		22,539	21,463		24,459	23,300		28,417	25,937		31,246	26,778
Demand in outpatients		9,545	9,680		10,651	10,772		12,115	12,098		13,193	12,775
Demand in community		7,263	7,263		7,768	7,768		8,474	8,474		8,948	8,948

"Calibrated" demand for nurses working in places not included in the models (additional 2.5 % at each point in time)
(1) Demand projection based on ratio of 4.8 nurses per thousand standard capita, according to the average ratio of registered nurses employed in the population from 2009-2011
(2) Demand projection based on the model of a fixed ratio of hospital beds per thousand standard capita in the population for the inpatient departments (2.1 beds in general hospitals, 0.45 in psychiatric hospitals per thousand standard capita in addition to long-term nursing beds, per Stessman committee), demand projections for outpatient departments and demand projections for registered nurses in the community
(3) Demand projection consists of the demand projection based on the model of utilization of the health system (hospital days) for inpatient departments, the demand projection for outpatient departments, and the demand for registered nurses in the community

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