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Table 1 Policies, specifications and effect sizes used in abridged SimSmoke

From: Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel

Policy Description Effect size (% Effect)a Ranges for sensitivity analysisa Long term multi-pliera Urban adjustorb
Tax as a percent of retail price of cigarettes Excise tax, taking into account expanded effect through value added tax 5.9 % (with price elasticity -0.15c and tax as a percent of price increasing from 69 % to 75 %) (-25 %- + 25 %) 2 no
Smoke-free air laws
 Ban in all indoor workplaces Ban in all indoor private workplaces 6 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.25 yes
 Ban in indoor offices only Ban except ventilated workplaces 4 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.25 yes
 Ban in health facilities, univ, govt. facilities (2 of 3) Ban in work areas only 2 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.25 yes
 Restaurants: Smoke-free in all indoor areas Ban in restaurants 2 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.25 yes
 Pubs and bars: smoke-free Ban in pubs and bars 1 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.25 yes
 Enforcement MPOWER: 0-10 25 % of effect depends on % enforcement (of 10)    
 Publicity Based on level of tobacco control funding 25 % of above effect depends on publicity    
Mass Media Campaigns (policies are mutually exclusive)
 Highly publicized campaign Tobacco control spending ≥ $0.50 USD per capita & media campaign 6.5 % reduction (-50 %, +50 %) 1.2 no
 Moderately publicized campaign Tobacco control spending ≥ $0.05 and < $0.50 USD per capita 3.5 % reduction (-50 %, +50 %) 1.2 no
 Low publicized campaign If tobacco control spending < $0.05 USD per capita 1.0 % reduction (-50 %, +50 %) 1.2 no
Marketing Bansd
 Ban on direct and indirect marketing Ban on all direct and indirect advertising 5 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.3 no
 Ban on advertising Ban on all direct advertising 3 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.3 no
 Partial ban on advertising Ban on some direct or indirect advertising 1 % (-50 %, +50 %) 1.3 no
 Enforcement MPOWER: 0 – 1.0 50 % of effect depends on enforcement    
Health Warningsd
 Complete Bold and graphic, covers 50 % of package 2 % (-50 %, +50 %) 2 no
 Strong Warning 30–50 % of package 1 % (-50 %, +50 %) 2 no
 Weak Warning <30 % of package 0.50 % (-50 %, +50 %) 2 no
Cessation Treatment Policiese
 Nicotine Replacement Therapy If sold by pharmacy or general store and if Rx required Prev. reduced 0.667 % if available at w/out Rx, 0.334 % if Rx (-75 %, +75 %) 2.5 yes
 Bupropion and Varenicline Sold by pharmacy with prescription Prev. reduced 0.334 %, (-75 %, +75 %) 2.5 yes
 Provision of treatments Type facilities: primary care, hospitals, health professionals, community and other If provided in in most, prevalence reduced 2.25 %, if provided in some, then 1.125 % (-75 %, +75 %) 2.5 yes
 Quit line type Operating active quit line Prev. reduced 0.5 % (-75 %, +75 %) 2.5 yes
 Overall effect With all of the above policies and publicity based on tobacco control funding Prev. reduced 4.75 %, 25 % of effect depends on publicity (-75 %, +75 %) 2.5 yes
  1. Notes: HIC high-income country, LIC low-income country, MIC middle-income country, NA not applicable, NRT nicotine replacement therapy
  2. aShort-term effect size is defined as the relative percentage change in smoking prevalence in first five years of policy implementation. The long-term effect is short-term-effect multiplied by the long-term multiplier, adjusted by awareness and urban status adjustors. We also provide ranges for the effect sizes, which are measured as percentage variation in the effect sizes compared to the level in the preceding column
  3. bThe urban adjustor reduces the effect to reflect the percentage of the rural population not affected by the policies indicated
  4. cSee Levy et al [32] for a description of the calculations
  5. dCategories are mutually exclusive categories
  6. eEffects are additive over policies