Table 1 Policies, specifications and effect sizes used in abridged SimSmoke

Tax as a percent of retail price of cigarettes

Excise tax, taking into account expanded effect through value added tax

5.9 % (with price elasticity -0.15^c and tax as a percent of price increasing from 69 % to 75 %)

(-25 %- + 25 %)

2

no

 Ban in all indoor workplaces

Ban in all indoor private workplaces

6 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.25

yes

 Ban in indoor offices only

Ban except ventilated workplaces

4 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.25

yes

 Ban in health facilities, univ, govt. facilities (2 of 3)

Ban in work areas only

2 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.25

yes

 Restaurants: Smoke-free in all indoor areas

Ban in restaurants

2 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.25

yes

 Pubs and bars: smoke-free

Ban in pubs and bars

1 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.25

yes

 Enforcement

MPOWER: 0-10

25 % of effect depends on % enforcement (of 10)

 Publicity

Based on level of tobacco control funding

25 % of above effect depends on publicity

 Highly publicized campaign

Tobacco control spending ≥ $0.50 USD per capita & media campaign

6.5 % reduction

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.2

no

 Moderately publicized campaign

Tobacco control spending ≥ $0.05 and < $0.50 USD per capita

3.5 % reduction

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.2

no

 Low publicized campaign

If tobacco control spending < $0.05 USD per capita

1.0 % reduction

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.2

no

 Ban on direct and indirect marketing

Ban on all direct and indirect advertising

5 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.3

no

 Ban on advertising

Ban on all direct advertising

3 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.3

no

 Partial ban on advertising

Ban on some direct or indirect advertising

1 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

1.3

no

 Enforcement

MPOWER: 0 – 1.0

50 % of effect depends on enforcement

 Complete

Bold and graphic, covers 50 % of package

2 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

2

no

 Strong

Warning 30–50 % of package

1 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

2

no

 Weak

Warning <30 % of package

0.50 %

(-50 %, +50 %)

2

no

 Nicotine Replacement Therapy

If sold by pharmacy or general store and if Rx required

Prev. reduced 0.667 % if available at w/out Rx, 0.334 % if Rx

(-75 %, +75 %)

2.5

yes

 Bupropion and Varenicline

Sold by pharmacy with prescription

Prev. reduced 0.334 %,

(-75 %, +75 %)

2.5

yes

 Provision of treatments

Type facilities: primary care, hospitals, health professionals, community and other

If provided in in most, prevalence reduced 2.25 %, if provided in some, then 1.125 %

(-75 %, +75 %)

2.5

yes

 Quit line type

Operating active quit line

Prev. reduced 0.5 %

(-75 %, +75 %)

2.5

yes

 Overall effect

With all of the above policies and publicity based on tobacco control funding

Prev. reduced 4.75 %, 25 % of effect depends on publicity

(-75 %, +75 %)

2.5

yes