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Table 2 Policy effects by MPOWER policy, individual and total: Israel

From: Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel

Current levels Smoking prevalence Number of smokers Projected deaths of smokers (lower) Projected deaths of smokers (upper)
  Male Female Male Female Total Male Female Total
Year 2014 24.5 % 13.2 % 1,093,088 349,468 197,076 546,544 454,308 256,199 710,507
Original policy Short-term effect size Long-term effect size Reduction in number of smokers Reduction in smoking attributable deaths (lower) Reduction in smoking attributable deaths (upper)
Male Female Total Male Female Total
Protect through Smoke-free Air Laws
 Moderate -4.6 % -5.8 % 63,403 20,270 11,431 31,702 26,352 14,860 41,212
Offer Cessation Treatments
 Moderate -2.6 % -6.5 % 70,918 22,673 12,786 35,459 29,475 16,622 46,097
Mass Media Campaigns
 Low -5.5 % -6.6 % 72,144 23,065 13,007 36,072 29,984 16,909 46,893
Warnings on Cigarette Packages
 Moderate -2.0 % -4.0 % 43,724 13,979 7,883 21,862 18,172 10,248 28,420
Enforcement of Marketing Restrictions
 Low-moderate -4.4 % -5.7 % 62,525 19,990 11,273 31,262 25,986 14,655 40,641
Raise Cigarette Taxes
 Excise Tax 69 % -5.9 % -11.7 % 127,969 40,913 23,072 63,984 26,593 14,997 83,180
Combined Policies
  -22.6 % -34.3 % 374,408 119,701 67,503 187,204 155,611 87,754 243,365
  1. Notes:
  2. Short-term and long-term effect size are measured in terms of the percentage reduction in smoking prevalence from the initial pre-policy level, i.e., (Post-policy smoking prevalence - Pre-policy smoking prevalence)/Pre-policy smoking prevalence. Lower and upper bounds for the long-term effect size and the reduction in smoking-attributable deaths can be obtained using the ranges for sensitivity analysis from provided in Table 1
  3. Smoking-attributable deaths are based on relative risks from high income nations [22]