Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel

Table 2 Policy effects by MPOWER policy, individual and total: Israel

Current levels	Smoking prevalence		Number of smokers	Projected deaths of smokers (lower)			Projected deaths of smokers (upper)
	Male	Female	Number of smokers	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
Year 2014	24.5 %	13.2 %	1,093,088	349,468	197,076	546,544	454,308	256,199	710,507
Original policy	Short-term effect size	Long-term effect size	Reduction in number of smokers	Reduction in smoking attributable deaths (lower)			Reduction in smoking attributable deaths (upper)
Original policy	Short-term effect size	Long-term effect size	Reduction in number of smokers	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total
Protect through Smoke-free Air Laws
Moderate	-4.6 %	-5.8 %	63,403	20,270	11,431	31,702	26,352	14,860	41,212
Offer Cessation Treatments
Moderate	-2.6 %	-6.5 %	70,918	22,673	12,786	35,459	29,475	16,622	46,097
Mass Media Campaigns
Low	-5.5 %	-6.6 %	72,144	23,065	13,007	36,072	29,984	16,909	46,893
Warnings on Cigarette Packages
Moderate	-2.0 %	-4.0 %	43,724	13,979	7,883	21,862	18,172	10,248	28,420
Enforcement of Marketing Restrictions
Low-moderate	-4.4 %	-5.7 %	62,525	19,990	11,273	31,262	25,986	14,655	40,641
Raise Cigarette Taxes
Excise Tax 69 %	-5.9 %	-11.7 %	127,969	40,913	23,072	63,984	26,593	14,997	83,180
Combined Policies
	-22.6 %	-34.3 %	374,408	119,701	67,503	187,204	155,611	87,754	243,365

Notes:
Short-term and long-term effect size are measured in terms of the percentage reduction in smoking prevalence from the initial pre-policy level, i.e., (Post-policy smoking prevalence - Pre-policy smoking prevalence)/Pre-policy smoking prevalence. Lower and upper bounds for the long-term effect size and the reduction in smoking-attributable deaths can be obtained using the ranges for sensitivity analysis from provided in Table 1
Smoking-attributable deaths are based on relative risks from high income nations [22]

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